We were treated to the bluster of the Donald, the argument between Rand Paul and Chris Christie, the musings of the other candidates in the Republican Presidential debate, but lurking in the weeds are signs pointing to a rot coming from with in the United States, which never made the stage. Puerto Rico is officially bankrupt, but we pass that off due to distance from the mainland. Greece hasn’t registered as a cautionary tale for the rest of the world.
Greece collapsed under the weight of generous pensions, easy borrowing, and a common currency that the Greek government couldn’t print or control its value in the world market. The US states are in the same boat as Greece. The following shows the danger that is lurking right under our noses, but will be ignored, marginalized if brought to attention, and will be “Crisis no one saw coming”.
When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures.
Take a look at this chart of state and local government debt as nominal GDP rose about 77% since 2000. So state and local debt rose at double the rate of GDP. That is the definition of an unsustainable trend.
Coupled with the debt, state and local taxes have soared 75%. While this would be no big deal if wages and salaries had risen by 75% in the same time frame, but earnings have barely kept pace with inflation (38% since 2000).
So state and local taxes have risen at a rate twice that of wages/salaries. State and local governments can keep raising taxes, but where’s the money going to come from?
State and local government expenditures have risen faster than inflation or GDP.
Here is the context that matters: household income. This is median real income, i.e. adjusted for inflation.
Wages and salaries are barely keeping up with inflation, real household incomes are down 8.5% since 2000 and state and local government taxes and spending are rising at twice the rate of inflation–where does this lead to?
1. The bond market may choke if state and local governments try to “borrow our way to prosperity” as they did in the 2000s.
2. If state and local taxes keep soaring while wages stagnate and household income declines, households will have less cash to spend on consumption.
3. Declining consumer spending = recession.
4. In recessions, sales and income taxes decline as households spending drops. This will crimp state and local tax revenues.
5. This sets up an unvirtuous cycle: state and local governments will have to raise taxes to maintain their trend of higher spending. Higher taxes reduce household spending, which reduces income and sales tax revenues. In response, state and local governments raise taxes again. This further suppresses disposable income and consumption. In other words, raising taxes offers diminishing returns.
At some point, local government revenues will decline despite tax increases and the bond market will raise the premium on local government debt in response to the rising risks.
When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures. Given their many contractual obligations, these cuts will slice very quickly into sinews and bone.
If this doesn’t strike you as a crisis, please check back in a few years.
Everything rots from within, this will make the “To Big to Fail Bailouts” seem tame. If this isn’t reversed and quickly, you will know what life is like inside of Greece.